Sogndal 1-0 Moss — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2024

Sogndal
1-0 HT 0-0
Moss
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.68
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
6+ Goals
13%
11.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.0pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sogndal EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Moss EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -14%
1.36/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.41
-18% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -34%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sogndal
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Moss
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
07.10.2023 Sogndal Sogndal 2-1 HT 0-0 Moss Moss NOR1
07.06.2023 Sogndal Sogndal 2-0 HT 0-0 Moss Moss NOK
23.04.2023 Moss Moss 1-2 HT 0-1 Sogndal Sogndal NOR1
29.08.2010 Sogndal Sogndal 2-0 HT 0-0 Moss Moss NOR1
04.07.2010 Moss Moss 1-4 HT 0-2 Sogndal Sogndal NOR1
18.10.2009 Moss Moss 0-3 HT 0-2 Sogndal Sogndal NOR1
POST-MATCH Sogndal vs Moss
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sogndal nicked a narrow win over Moss 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sogndal as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sogndal had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sogndal and 0.50 for Moss.

What was the final score of Sogndal vs Moss?

Sogndal 1-0 Moss in the Norway - 1st Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sogndal vs Moss?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sogndal win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sogndal 49%, draw 25%, Moss 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sogndal) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sogndal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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