Tusker 1-0 Nairobi City Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nairobi City Stars EU Bookmakers 21%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.87/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.32
+34% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tusker
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Nairobi City Stars
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
23.11.2024 Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars 0-1 HT 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
16.01.2022 Tusker Tusker 0-1 HT 0-0 Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tusker
1-0
AWAY Nairobi City Stars
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tusker vs Nairobi City Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker squeezed past Nairobi City Stars 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tusker as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tusker had 47% of the ball to Nairobi City Stars's 53%, shots finished 12-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tusker and 0.50 for Nairobi City Stars.

What was the final score of Tusker vs Nairobi City Stars?

Tusker 1-0 Nairobi City Stars in the Kenya - Premier League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs Nairobi City Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tusker win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tusker 49%, draw 28%, Nairobi City Stars 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tusker), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tusker) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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