Alverca 4-0 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
2.07
Over
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No Pick
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.8
2-3
37%
1.81
4-5
24%
3.01
6+
10%
9.68
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.8 — our 29% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
60%
-11.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 21%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.58/2.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.47
+19% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.0 Crosses 14.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
1W-0D-0L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.90 xG 1.42
40% Ball Possession 60%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
210 Passes 312
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 0
08.12.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-4 HT 1-3 Alverca Alverca POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
4-0
AWAY UD Oliveirense
3.40 xG 0.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 12
378 Passes 242
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alverca vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca ran out comfortable winners over UD Oliveirense 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Alverca had 57% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 43%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 3.40 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Alverca vs UD Oliveirense?

Alverca 4-0 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Alverca 49%, draw 25%, UD Oliveirense 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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