Tondela 0-1 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
23%
2.88
Away
44%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.64
Over
35%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.82
No
63%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
40%
2.61
2-3
38%
1.73
4-5
15%
4.13
6+
7%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.61 — our 40% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.9pp
23%
Draw
31%
-8.0pp
44%
Away Win
37%
+7.1pp
65%
Under 2.5
57%
+7.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
43%
-7.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
51%
-14.2pp
63%
BTTS No
49%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.32/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.43
+30% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.4 Crosses 19.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Vizela
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 11
297 Passes 306
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2024 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
22.01.2022 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 2-1 Vizela Vizela POR
14.08.2021 Vizela Vizela 2-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
0-1
AWAY Vizela
1.03 xG 0.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
277 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela nicked a narrow win over Tondela 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vizela as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Tondela had 48% of the ball to Vizela's 52%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.03 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Vizela led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tondela and 2.00 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Vizela?

Tondela 0-1 Vizela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tondela 33%, draw 23%, Vizela 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vizela), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vizela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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