Maritimo 2-0 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.68
Over
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.65
2-3
45%
1.73
4-5
20%
4.06
6+
9%
19.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 30%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -12%
1.28/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.48
-14% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.7 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Mafra
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.88 xG 1.06
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
216 Passes 296
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2024 Mafra Mafra 2-3 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
25.02.2024 Mafra Mafra 0-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
30.09.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 1-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
15.10.2022 Mafra Mafra 4-2 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POK
28.07.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 3-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
2-0
AWAY Mafra
1.24 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
194 Passes 242
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo beat Mafra 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Maritimo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Maritimo had 50% of the ball to Mafra's 50%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.24 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Maritimo and 1.60 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Mafra?

Maritimo 2-0 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 40%, draw 28%, Mafra 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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