Mafra 2-3 Maritimo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 8 Dec 2024

📅08/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.43
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.69
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
39%
Away Win
39%
-0.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Maritimo EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.24/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.22
-7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 19.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Maritimo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 0.54
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 228
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
25.02.2024 Mafra Mafra 0-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
30.09.2023 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 1-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
15.10.2022 Mafra Mafra 4-2 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POK
28.07.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 3-0 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
2-3
AWAY Maritimo
0.77 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
171 Passes 190
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Maritimo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo edged past Mafra 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Maritimo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 48% of the ball to Maritimo's 52%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.77 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mafra had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mafra and 1.50 for Maritimo.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Maritimo?

Mafra 2-3 Maritimo in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 08/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Maritimo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mafra 33%, draw 28%, Maritimo 39%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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