Esenler Erokspor 3-1 Kocaelispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
45%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.45
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
4%
13.55
X/1
7%
6.38
X/2
17%
5.23
X/X
12%
4.78
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
20%
3.28
2/X
10%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
45%
Away Win
41%
+4.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 45%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.49/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.00
+38% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.2 Crosses 19.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Kocaelispor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.35 xG 0.80
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
280 Passes 366
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 41
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.12.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-2 HT 0-1 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
3-1
AWAY Kocaelispor
1.95 xG 2.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 6
319 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Kocaelispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor got the better of Kocaelispor 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kocaelispor at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 52% of the ball to Kocaelispor's 48%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.95 to 2.76 — on chances, Kocaelispor could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Kocaelispor?

Esenler Erokspor 3-1 Kocaelispor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Kocaelispor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 28%, draw 27%, Kocaelispor 45%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
20 Apr 2025
13:30 Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor Analysis →
13:30 Yeni Malatyaspor vs Adanaspor Analysis →
19:00 Gençlerbirliği vs Bandırmaspor Analysis →