Keçiörengücü 0-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.93
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.93 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.66
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
20%
4.79
X/2
12%
7.66
X/X
11%
5.28
2/1
7%
22.9
2/2
12%
5.47
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.46/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.46
+9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.3 Crosses 16.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.28 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
289 Passes 344
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.12.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.04.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 4-2 HT 4-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
09.12.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
19.04.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.11.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-2 HT 1-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
19.02.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
0-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
0.80 xG 1.22
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
272 Passes 420
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor nicked a narrow win over Keçiörengücü 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Keçiörengücü at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 43% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 57%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.80 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.67 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?

Keçiörengücü 0-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 44%, draw 24%, Ümraniyespor 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Keçiörengücü) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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