Başakşehir FK 2-1 Gaziantep FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.21
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.21 — our 26% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.12
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
17%
4.38
X/2
9%
9.99
X/X
15%
5.94
2/1
8%
21.0
2/2
10%
7.49
2/X
5%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Gaziantep FK EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.74/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.64
+5% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
425 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
18.9 Crosses 15.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.01 xG 1.30
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
433 Passes 300
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.11.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 3-0 HT 2-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
24.02.2024 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 0-2 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
07.10.2023 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 2-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
05.01.2023 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-1 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
12.02.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK TSL
22.09.2021 Gaziantep FK Gaziantep FK 1-0 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
2-1
AWAY Gaziantep FK
1.55 xG 1.55
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
317 Passes 266
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Gaziantep FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK squeezed past Gaziantep FK 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Başakşehir FK as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 55% of the ball to Gaziantep FK's 45%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.55 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Başakşehir FK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Başakşehir FK and 0.83 for Gaziantep FK.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Gaziantep FK?

Başakşehir FK 2-1 Gaziantep FK in the Turkey - Super League on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Gaziantep FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 50%, draw 26%, Gaziantep FK 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Başakşehir FK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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