Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 20 May 2024

📅20/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 33% vs market 30.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.62
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.45
X/1
17%
4.12
X/2
14%
7.76
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
5%
27.5
2/2
10%
6.35
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamrock Rovers EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 27%
+13% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +22%
1.76/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.01
+23% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 72%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
16.9 Crosses 15.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamrock Rovers
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Derry City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.25 xG 1.25
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
362 Passes 284
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-3 HT 0-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
04.03.2024 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 2-2 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
15.09.2023 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
26.06.2023 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
01.05.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-2 HT 0-2 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
03.03.2023 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-2 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shamrock Rovers
1-0
AWAY Derry City
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shamrock Rovers edged past Derry City 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shamrock Rovers as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Shamrock Rovers had 44% of the ball to Derry City's 56%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shamrock Rovers had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.00 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?

Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 20/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Shamrock Rovers 43%, draw 25%, Derry City 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shamrock Rovers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shamrock Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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