Shamrock Rovers 2-2 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.55
X/2
8%
6.67
X/X
15%
4.2
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
11%
5.15
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamrock Rovers EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +25%
1.65/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.78
+40% / +114% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 70%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
14.0 Crosses 16.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamrock Rovers
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derry City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.94 xG 0.73
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
342 Passes 308
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2023 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
26.06.2023 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
01.05.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-2 HT 0-2 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
03.03.2023 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-2 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
10.02.2023 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 2-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRSK
30.10.2022 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-0 HT 1-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shamrock Rovers
2-2
AWAY Derry City
1.76 xG 3.19
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
429 Passes 221
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shamrock Rovers and Derry City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Shamrock Rovers at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shamrock Rovers had 62% of the ball to Derry City's 38%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.76 to 3.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shamrock Rovers had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.83 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?

Shamrock Rovers 2-2 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Shamrock Rovers 44%, draw 29%, Derry City 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shamrock Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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