Yanbian Longding 1-2 Nanjing City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.2
6+ Goals
8%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 34% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-1.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Yanbian Longding EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Nanjing City EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.01/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/0.57
+19% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +51%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
256 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
16.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
19.6 Crosses 13.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Yanbian Longding
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Nanjing City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.47 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
242 Passes 292
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.03.2024 Nanjing City Nanjing City 0-1 HT 0-0 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ÇİN2
02.09.2023 Nanjing City Nanjing City 1-0 HT 0-0 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding ÇİN2
20.05.2023 Yanbian Longding Yanbian Longding 1-0 HT 0-0 Nanjing City Nanjing City ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Yanbian Longding
1-2
AWAY Nanjing City
0.58 xG 0.30
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
305 Passes 241
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 18
37 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nanjing City edged past Yanbian Longding 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Nanjing City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Yanbian Longding had 56% of the ball to Nanjing City's 44%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.58 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Yanbian Longding had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Yanbian Longding and 0.33 for Nanjing City.

What was the final score of Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City?

Yanbian Longding 1-2 Nanjing City in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nanjing City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Yanbian Longding 37%, draw 26%, Nanjing City 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nanjing City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nanjing City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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