Lugano 2-1 Grasshoppers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.71
6+ Goals
11%
15.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.71 — our 25% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.15
X/2
5%
8.92
X/X
12%
4.56
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.98
2/X
9%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.8pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Grasshoppers EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.47/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.69
-3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
18.2 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Grasshoppers
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 0.52
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
474 Passes 247
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
31.01.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-0 HT 0-0 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers İSV
22.10.2023 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 2-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 5-1 HT 1-1 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers İSV
02.04.2023 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.01.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 0-1 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
2-1
AWAY Grasshoppers
1.84 xG 1.48
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
478 Passes 218
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Grasshoppers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano edged past Grasshoppers 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lugano had 67% of the ball to Grasshoppers's 33%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.84 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lugano and 1.00 for Grasshoppers.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Grasshoppers?

Lugano 2-1 Grasshoppers in the Switzerland - Super League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Grasshoppers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lugano 51%, draw 26%, Grasshoppers 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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