Skanste 3-2 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.89
Over 2.5
53%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.53
No
53%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.9pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.7pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
31%
+16.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
69%
-16.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
-13.9pp
53%
BTTS No
39%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Skanste EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
2.21/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/3.59
+4% / +114% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -43%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Skanste
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
05.08.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 1-1 HT 1-0 Skanste Skanste LET1
08.04.2023 Skanste Skanste 4-0 HT 2-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
POST-MATCH Skanste vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Skanste squeezed past Progress / AFA Olaine 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Skanste as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Skanste had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Skanste and 0.50 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of Skanste vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Skanste 3-2 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Skanste vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Skanste win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Skanste 56%, draw 21%, Progress / AFA Olaine 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Skanste), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Skanste) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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