Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 20 Jul 2024

Pogon Szczecin
3-0 HT 1-0
Korona Kielce
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 29% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.8
X/1
25%
3.85
X/2
6%
11.6
X/X
14%
6.0
2/1
9%
21.45
2/2
9%
8.7
2/X
5%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
20%
Away Win
17%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.4pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pogon Szczecin v Korona Kielce — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
2.02/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.45
+19% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 73%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
23.6 Crosses 19.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5

Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.65 xG 1.00
60% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
381 Passes 243
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-2 HT 2-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
16.09.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
18.03.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
04.09.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 0-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.12.2019 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
19.08.2019 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
3-0
AWAY Korona Kielce
2.28 xG 0.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
336 Passes 307
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin cruised past Korona Kielce 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 51% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 49%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.28 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.83 for Korona Kielce.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?

Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 55%, draw 25%, Korona Kielce 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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