Quilmes 3-1 Arsenal Sarandi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Over 2.5
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.51
No
59%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
36%
+5.6pp
59%
BTTS No
64%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quilmes EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Sarandi EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -2%
1.43/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/1.28
+9% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
320 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quilmes
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Sarandi
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
253 Passes 244
69% Pass Accuracy 67%
19 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi 0-1 HT 0-1 Quilmes Quilmes ARJPBN
27.07.2024 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi 0-0 HT 0-0 Quilmes Quilmes ARJPBN
10.03.2024 Quilmes Quilmes 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi ARJPBN
21.06.2017 Quilmes Quilmes 2-2 HT 2-2 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi ARJ
12.04.2016 Quilmes Quilmes 1-4 HT 0-0 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi ARJ
04.05.2015 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi 0-1 HT 0-0 Quilmes Quilmes ARJ
POST-MATCH Quilmes vs Arsenal Sarandi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Quilmes beat Arsenal Sarandi 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Quilmes as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Quilmes had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Quilmes and 1.00 for Arsenal Sarandi.

What was the final score of Quilmes vs Arsenal Sarandi?

Quilmes 3-1 Arsenal Sarandi in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quilmes vs Arsenal Sarandi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Quilmes win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Quilmes 47%, draw 28%, Arsenal Sarandi 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Quilmes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Quilmes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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