Jaro 0-1 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.65
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
54%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.95
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
8.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.58 — our 26% vs market 17.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.53
1/2
7%
20.4
1/X
6%
17.1
X/1
7%
11.2
X/2 EV+ ✓
29%
4.21
X/X
15%
6.42
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
18%
1.94
2/X
5%
15.35
Value flag · X/2 at 4.21 — our 29% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
54%
Away Win
60%
-6.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jaro EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 64%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
0.49/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/1.10
-40% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -23%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
197 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 85%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.1
13.0 Crosses 17.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jaro
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.58 xG 0.88
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
349 Passes 603
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
24 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-1 HT 2-0 Jaro Jaro FİN
22.02.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 4-0 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FLK
16.08.2015 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-0 HT 1-0 Jaro Jaro FİN
16.06.2015 Jaro Jaro 3-0 HT 2-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
29.04.2015 Jaro Jaro 3-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jaro
0-1
AWAY Ilves Tampere
0.09 xG 2.31
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 34
1 Shots on Target 11
1 Corners 17
180 Passes 410
71% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 77
7 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jaro vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere edged past Jaro 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Jaro had 34% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 66%, shots finished 3-34, expected goals 0.09 to 2.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ilves Tampere's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Jaro and 1.60 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of Jaro vs Ilves Tampere?

Jaro 0-1 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jaro vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Jaro 20%, draw 26%, Ilves Tampere 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ BTTS No
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