Pogon Siedlce 1-1 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.19
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.41
6+ Goals
13%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 42%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.02
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
249 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.04.2025 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-1 HT 2-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL1
22.09.2024 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-4 HT 0-1 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
13.11.2022 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
23.07.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 2-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
1-1
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce and Polonia Warszawa shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 44% of the ball to Polonia Warszawa's 56%, shots finished 8-17.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pogon Siedlce and 1.75 for Polonia Warszawa.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa?

Pogon Siedlce 1-1 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 36%, draw 23%, Polonia Warszawa 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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