Catanzaro 1-2 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 32% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.86
1/2
4%
28.5
1/X
4%
12.3
X/1
13%
5.85
X/2 EV+ ✓
21%
5.62
X/X
15%
4.42
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
15%
3.64
2/X
8%
12.25
Value flag · X/2 at 5.62 — our 21% vs market 13.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+4.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 40%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.04/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.07
+6% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +16%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
18.6 Crosses 19.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catanzaro
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Cremonese
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.19 xG 1.29
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
418 Passes 349
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 Cremonese Cremonese 4-1 HT 3-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
21.05.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 2-2 HT 0-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
20.04.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-0 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
19.08.2023 Cremonese Cremonese 0-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
13.01.2006 Catanzaro Catanzaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Cremonese Cremonese İTB
04.09.2005 Cremonese Cremonese 2-0 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catanzaro
1-2
AWAY Cremonese
0.29 xG 1.87
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
263 Passes 388
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Catanzaro vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cremonese nicked a narrow win over Catanzaro 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cremonese as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Catanzaro had 42% of the ball to Cremonese's 58%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.29 to 1.87 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cremonese's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cremonese led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Catanzaro and 1.50 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Catanzaro vs Cremonese?

Catanzaro 1-2 Cremonese in the Italy - Serie B on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catanzaro vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cremonese win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Catanzaro 33%, draw 27%, Cremonese 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cremonese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cremonese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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