NK Varazdin 1-0 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 20 Sep 2024

📅20/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.58
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.0pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 26%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.36/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.17
-8% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.8 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.86 xG 0.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
286 Passes 268
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
08.03.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 2-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
11.01.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 ARK
05.12.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 3-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIRK
01.12.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
17.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-0
AWAY Istra 1961
1.30 xG 0.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
336 Passes 331
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin squeezed past Istra 1961 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NK Varazdin as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 50% of the ball to Istra 1961's 50%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.30 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.83 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

NK Varazdin 1-0 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 48%, draw 29%, Istra 1961 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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