Atletico Nacional 2-1 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 20 Sep 2024

Atletico Nacional
2-1 HT 1-1
Alianza Petrolera
📅20/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Colombia - Cup – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.1pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Alianza Petrolera — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 19%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
2.97/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
+113% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -51%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.30 xG 0.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
316 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
17.09.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOLK
18.07.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
22.01.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
29.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional nicked a narrow win over Alianza Petrolera 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Atletico Nacional 2-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Cup on 20/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 56%, draw 24%, Alianza Petrolera 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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