Morecambe 4-3 Wealdstone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 20 Sep 2025

Morecambe
4-3 HT 3-1
Wealdstone
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - National League – 2025/2026

Morecambe vs Wealdstone Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
47%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
8.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.19
1/2
6%
20.75
1/X
5%
14.25
X/1
10%
7.5
X/2
13%
4.64
X/X
10%
5.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
31.5
2/2
28%
2.51
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.5 — our 6% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+2.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-2.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Wealdstone — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Wealdstone EU Bookmakers 53%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/2.00
-21% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -41%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
217 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Morecambe 4-3 Wealdstone — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
4-3
AWAY Wealdstone
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Wealdstone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe edged past Wealdstone 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Wealdstone at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Morecambe had 50% of the ball to Wealdstone's 50%, shots finished 14-12.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Wealdstone?

Morecambe 4-3 Wealdstone in the England - National League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Wealdstone?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wealdstone win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 31%, draw 23%, Wealdstone 47%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wealdstone) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wealdstone) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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