Altrincham 1-2 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 20 Sep 2025

Altrincham
1-2 HT 1-2
Carlisle United
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - National League – 2025/2026

Altrincham vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
48%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
2.94
6+ Goals
10%
9.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.7
1/2
9%
22.8
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
9%
6.9
X/2
18%
4.98
X/X
14%
5.15
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
22%
2.85
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
48%
Away Win
45%
+3.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Altrincham v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Altrincham EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
1.50/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.00
+19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / –
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
191 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 175 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Altrincham 1-2 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Altrincham
1-2
AWAY Carlisle United
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Altrincham vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United squeezed past Altrincham 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Carlisle United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Altrincham had 51% of the ball to Carlisle United's 49%, shots finished 13-6.

What was the final score of Altrincham vs Carlisle United?

Altrincham 1-2 Carlisle United in the England - National League on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Altrincham vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carlisle United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Altrincham 26%, draw 25%, Carlisle United 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carlisle United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Carlisle United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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