Almeria 2-1 Sporting Gijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.49
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
22%
4.45
X/2
8%
7.9
X/X
8%
4.95
2/1
9%
23.2
2/2
11%
6.0
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
50%
+1.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.65/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.46
+11% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.4 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.70 xG 1.05
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
424 Passes 320
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.02.2025 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
31.08.2024 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
25.04.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
02.11.2021 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
30.05.2021 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-2 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
04.10.2020 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-1
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.63 xG 1.13
68% Ball Possession 32%
24 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
558 Passes 230
90% Pass Accuracy 77%
40 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Sporting Gijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria nicked a narrow win over Sporting Gijon 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Almeria as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Almeria had 68% of the ball to Sporting Gijon's 32%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 1.63 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Almeria and 0.50 for Sporting Gijon.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Sporting Gijon?

Almeria 2-1 Sporting Gijon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Sporting Gijon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Almeria 51%, draw 24%, Sporting Gijon 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almeria), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS2 More Spain - 2nd Division
20 Sep 2025
17:15 Cultural Leonesa vs CD Castellon Analysis →
19:30 FC Andorra vs Mirandes Analysis →
19:30 Leganes vs Las Palmas Analysis →