Augsburg 1-4 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Sep 2025

Augsburg
1-4 HT 0-2
Mainz 05
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.07
Over
53%
1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.54
No
44%
2.31
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.78
2-3
43%
1.8
4-5
23%
3.02
6+
10%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.63
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
14%
5.86
X/2 ✗
18%
5.86
X/X
13%
4.92
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
12%
3.63
2/X
6%
12.15
Value flag · X/2 at 5.86 — our 18% vs market 12.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Augsburg v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg The Market 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 The Market 40%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +6%
1.43/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.51
-1% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
20.3 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.10 xG 1.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
275 Passes 286
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
20.09.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
17.02.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
23.09.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 2-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
11.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
20.08.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Augsburg 1-4 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-4
AWAY Mainz 05
1.12 xG 2.52
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
414 Passes 234
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 27
35 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Augsburg vs Mainz 05
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Mainz 05 cruised past Augsburg 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.

The model refused to pick a side here (38% / 25% / 37%); Mainz 05 picked one for it. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

By the numbers, Augsburg had 61% of the ball to Mainz 05's 39%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.12 to 2.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Augsburg and 1.67 for Mainz 05.

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 Result & Final Score

Augsburg 1-4 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Augsburg vs Mainz 05 Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 38%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 37%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Augsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
20 Sep 2025
16:30 Hoffenheim vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
16:30 Hamburg vs Heidenheim Analysis →
16:30 Werder Bremen vs Freiburg Analysis →
19:30 RB Leipzig vs Köln Analysis →