Brest 4-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 20 Sep 2025

Brest
4-1 HT 2-1
Nice
📅20/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Brest vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
9.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.29
1/2
6%
23.2
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
15%
6.6
X/2 EV+ ✗
20%
5.31
X/X
7%
5.09
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
16%
3.06
2/X
8%
12.15
Value flag · X/2 at 5.31 — our 20% vs market 14.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.9pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brest v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.44/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.32
+10% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 83%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
21.7 Crosses 18.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Brest vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Nice
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.91 xG 1.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
395 Passes 359
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.05.2025 Nice Nice 6-0 HT 3-0 Brest Brest FR1
02.11.2024 Brest Brest 0-1 HT 0-1 Nice Nice FR1
04.02.2024 Brest Brest 0-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice FR1
01.10.2023 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
16.04.2023 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
06.11.2022 Nice Nice 1-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1

Brest 4-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
4-1
AWAY Nice
2.03 xG 2.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
290 Passes 538
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 33
6 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brest vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest swept aside Nice 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nice at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Brest had 38% of the ball to Nice's 62%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 2.03 to 2.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Brest and 1.33 for Nice.

What was the final score of Brest vs Nice?

Brest 4-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Brest 35%, draw 23%, Nice 42%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nice) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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