Troyes 5-2 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
56%
1.82
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.03
Over
50%
1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.67
No
50%
2.07
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.63
2-3
42%
1.78
4-5
23%
3.1
6+
9%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.63 — our 26% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.4
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
11%
4.48
X/2
9%
8.23
X/X
10%
5.16
2/1
10%
21.95
2/2
9%
6.11
2/X
5%
14.25
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Troyes The Market 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp The Market 28%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Strong Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Bad
1.35 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.11
1.16 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.42
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Strong Defensevs comparable teams Average
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
19.2 Crosses 17.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Troyes
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guingamp
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
414 Passes 302
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
13 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.03.2025 Troyes Troyes 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
16.08.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 4-0 HT 2-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
02.03.2024 Guingamp Guingamp 0-0 HT 0-0 Troyes Troyes FR2
25.11.2023 Troyes Troyes 0-1 HT 0-1 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
03.04.2021 Troyes Troyes 1-0 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
01.12.2020 Guingamp Guingamp 1-2 HT 0-1 Troyes Troyes FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Troyes
5-2
AWAY Guingamp
1.57 xG 0.84
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
393 Passes 524
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
33 Box Touches 10
13 Crosses 18
REVIEW Troyes vs Guingamp
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Troyes ran out comfortable winners over Guingamp 5-2. Half-time: 3-1. A 7-goal game — the defences never settled.

As we said in the preview, our model had Troyes as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 50% and both teams to score at 50%. At 1.67 (~60%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

Under the surface, Troyes had 43% of the ball to Guingamp's 57%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.57 to 0.84.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Troyes and 1.17 for Guingamp.

Troyes vs Guingamp Result & Final Score

Troyes 5-2 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Troyes vs Guingamp Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Troyes win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Troyes 56%, draw 21%, Guingamp 23%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Troyes) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Troyes)
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