Smiltene 2-2 JFK Ventspils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 20 Sep 2025

📅20/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
3.5
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
61%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
4%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
25%
-4.4pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.8pp
61%
Away Win
53%
+8.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.6pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY JFK Ventspils EU Bookmakers 57%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
0.40/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.99
-69% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
1W-1D-3L
AWAY JFK Ventspils
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
3 Corners 3
11.05.2025 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 2-1 HT 2-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
31.08.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-2 HT 0-2 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
05.05.2024 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 2-0 HT 1-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
27.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-1 HT 0-1 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
29.04.2023 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 0-1 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene and JFK Ventspils shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. JFK Ventspils carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, JFK Ventspils led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Smiltene and 1.40 for JFK Ventspils.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils?

Smiltene 2-2 JFK Ventspils in the Latvia - 1st Division on 20/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils?

Before kick-off our model rated an JFK Ventspils win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 20%, draw 19%, JFK Ventspils 61%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (JFK Ventspils) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (JFK Ventspils) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET1 More Latvia - 1st Division
20 Sep 2025
13:00 Riga FC II vs Marupe Analysis →
17:30 Ogre United vs Riga Mariners Analysis →