Falkenbergs FF 1-0 AFC Malmö — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.97
Over Pick
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
39%
4-5
28%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
27%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Falkenbergs FF The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Malmö The Market 23%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.96/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.48
+4% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Falkenbergs FF
1W-1D-0L
AWAY AFC Malmö
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
06.04.2024 AFC Malmö 0-2 HT 0-1 Falkenbergs FF Falkenbergs FF İSÇ3
23.09.2023 AFC Malmö 1-1 HT 0-0 Falkenbergs FF Falkenbergs FF İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Falkenbergs FF
1-0
AWAY AFC Malmö
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Malmö
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Falkenbergs FF nicked a narrow win over AFC Malmö 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Falkenbergs FF as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Falkenbergs FF had 47% of the ball to AFC Malmö's 53%, shots finished 18-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Falkenbergs FF had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Falkenbergs FF and 0.50 for AFC Malmö.

What was the final score of Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Malmö?

Falkenbergs FF 1-0 AFC Malmö in the Sweden - 1st Division on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Falkenbergs FF vs AFC Malmö?

Before kick-off our model rated a Falkenbergs FF win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Falkenbergs FF 50%, draw 23%, AFC Malmö 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Falkenbergs FF) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Falkenbergs FF) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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