Genk 3-2 St. Truidense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.9
2-3 Goals
44%
1.94
4-5 Goals
22%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
7.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.84
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.15
X/1
20%
3.88
X/2
10%
12.2
X/X
6%
6.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.35
2/2
8%
8.75
2/X
7%
16.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+8.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Truidense EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.20/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.84
+9% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
395 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.3 Crosses 12.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
1W-4D-1L
AWAY St. Truidense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.70 xG 1.10
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 280
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2024 St. Truidense St. Truidense 1-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
24.09.2023 Genk Genk 3-3 HT 0-3 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
05.03.2023 St. Truidense St. Truidense 2-2 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
03.09.2022 Genk Genk 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
13.03.2022 Genk Genk 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
19.09.2021 St. Truidense St. Truidense 1-2 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
POST-MATCH Genk vs St. Truidense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk squeezed past St. Truidense 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Genk as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Genk and 1.33 for St. Truidense.

What was the final score of Genk vs St. Truidense?

Genk 3-2 St. Truidense in the Belgium - Pro League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs St. Truidense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Genk 53%, draw 23%, St. Truidense 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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