Aucas 3-1 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Oct 2024

Aucas
3-1 HT 1-1
Macara
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
37%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
43%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
37%
Away Win
27%
+9.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.42/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.00
+1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
19.1 Crosses 15.0
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Macara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.25 xG 1.47
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
309 Passes 188
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Macara Macara 0-2 HT 0-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
21.08.2022 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.04.2022 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Macara Macara EKV1
20.11.2021 Aucas Aucas 2-4 HT 2-3 Macara Macara EKV1
30.05.2021 Macara Macara 1-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
06.12.2020 Macara Macara 2-1 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
3-1
AWAY Macara
2.22 xG 1.39
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
269 Passes 183
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas beat Macara 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Aucas made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Aucas had 57% of the ball to Macara's 43%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.22 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 1.33 for Macara.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Macara?

Aucas 3-1 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Aucas 36%, draw 27%, Macara 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Macara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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