Fagiano Okayama 2-1 Iwaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.02
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.87
6+ Goals
9%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 30% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Iwaki EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +17%
1.30/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/0.95
-7% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +66% / +42%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 176 · 64%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
38.0 Crosses 12.1
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Iwaki
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Iwaki Iwaki 1-1 HT 0-1 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
03.09.2023 Iwaki Iwaki 1-2 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
02.04.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-1 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
2-1
AWAY Iwaki
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Iwaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama nicked a narrow win over Iwaki 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Fagiano Okayama made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 52% of the ball to Iwaki's 48%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Fagiano Okayama had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.00 for Iwaki.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Iwaki?

Fagiano Okayama 2-1 Iwaki in the Japan - J2 League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Iwaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 38%, draw 29%, Iwaki 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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