Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 20 Oct 2024

📅20/10/2024 · 🕒07:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.18
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
19%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 25% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.8pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
2.34/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.40
+17% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
442 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
25.11.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
09.09.2023 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-0 HT 3-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
03.06.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-1 HT 1-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP2
07.11.2015 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-2 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
29.04.2015 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 3-3 HT 3-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-2
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
53% Ball Possession 47%
25 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
411 Passes 363
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata squeezed past Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Shimizu S-Pulse at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 53% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 47%, shots finished 25-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.33 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Montedio Yamagata?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 51%, draw 25%, Montedio Yamagata 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ BTTS No
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