Celaya 1-0 Tlaxcala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 20 Oct 2024

Celaya
1-0 HT 1-0
Tlaxcala
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2024/2025

Celaya vs Tlaxcala Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.3pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.1pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celaya v Tlaxcala — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.78/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.79
-8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
414 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.5

Celaya vs Tlaxcala Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Tlaxcala
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
31.08.2023 Tlaxcala 1-2 HT 0-2 Celaya Celaya MEK2
04.03.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 1-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
18.08.2022 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
16.02.2022 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
18.08.2021 Celaya Celaya 3-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs Tlaxcala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya squeezed past Tlaxcala 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Celaya and 0.50 for Tlaxcala.

What was the final score of Celaya vs Tlaxcala?

Celaya 1-0 Tlaxcala in the Mexico - Primera A on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs Tlaxcala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Celaya 55%, draw 24%, Tlaxcala 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ BTTS No
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