Goias 1-3 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Oct 2025

📅20/10/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 32% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Goias EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.51/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.27
+13% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +43%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
23.3 Crosses 14.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Goias
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Chapecoense
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.13 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
283 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.06.2025 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-2 HT 1-0 Goias Goias BR2
22.10.2024 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-4 HT 0-2 Goias Goias BR2
06.07.2024 Goias Goias 1-2 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
21.10.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 2-2 HT 2-0 Goias Goias BR1
11.06.2019 Goias Goias 3-1 HT 1-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
29.11.2015 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-3 HT 0-2 Goias Goias BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Goias
1-3
AWAY Chapecoense
1.15 xG 1.41
54% Ball Possession 46%
26 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
307 Passes 273
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 11
51 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Goias vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense got the better of Goias 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Goias at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Goias had 54% of the ball to Chapecoense's 46%, shots finished 26-11, expected goals 1.15 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Goias had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Goias and 1.17 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Goias vs Chapecoense?

Goias 1-3 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Goias vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Goias win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Goias 49%, draw 24%, Chapecoense 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Goias) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
20 Oct 2025
00:30 Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense Analysis →
00:30 Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba Analysis →