Osijek 2-2 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.18
2-3 Goals
46%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 26% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.0pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.1pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.47/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.21
-9% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
23.0 Crosses 14.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Istra 1961
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 0.91
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 Passes 263
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-1 HT 2-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
20.04.2024 Osijek Osijek 1-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
10.02.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
28.10.2023 Osijek Osijek 3-1 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
13.08.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 4-4 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
26.04.2023 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
2-2
AWAY Istra 1961
1.58 xG 2.66
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
360 Passes 200
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek and Istra 1961 shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Osijek at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Osijek had 61% of the ball to Istra 1961's 39%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.58 to 2.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Osijek and 1.67 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Istra 1961?

Osijek 2-2 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Osijek 47%, draw 30%, Istra 1961 23%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Osijek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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