Köln 0-1 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.93
6+ Goals
11%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.71
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
16%
5.56
X/2
13%
6.06
X/X
13%
4.21
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
15%
4.24
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.0pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -19%
1.68/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.29
-5% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
23.4 Crosses 19.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Union Berlin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.27 xG 1.23
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
406 Passes 242
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Köln Köln 3-2 HT 1-2 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.12.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
04.03.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
11.09.2022 Köln Köln 0-1 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
01.04.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
07.11.2021 Köln Köln 2-2 HT 1-2 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
0-1
AWAY Union Berlin
0.54 xG 1.26
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
452 Passes 238
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Köln vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin squeezed past Köln 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Union Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Köln had 62% of the ball to Union Berlin's 38%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.54 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Köln and 1.33 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Köln vs Union Berlin?

Köln 0-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Köln 39%, draw 27%, Union Berlin 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Köln) ✗ BTTS Yes
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