Köln vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Köln v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals
Köln vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Köln
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Köln
AL1
0-1
HT 0-1
Union Berlin
AL1
1-0
HT 0-0
Köln
AL1
2-2
HT 1-2
Union Berlin
AL1
Köln 0-1 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics
Union Berlin squeezed past Köln 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Union Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Köln had 62% of the ball to Union Berlin's 38%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.54 to 1.26.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Köln and 1.33 for Union Berlin.
What was the final score of Köln vs Union Berlin?
Köln 0-1 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Köln vs Union Berlin?
Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Köln 39%, draw 27%, Union Berlin 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.