Wolfsburg 3-4 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.32
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.45
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 26% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.45
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
12%
5.44
X/2
12%
6.19
X/X
12%
4.76
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.21
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+3.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +26%
1.44/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.22
+5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +55%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 76%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.1 Crosses 16.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Freiburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.91 xG 1.69
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
352 Passes 340
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2025 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
13.12.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 3-2 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
27.04.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
09.12.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.07.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg HAZ
19.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
3-4
AWAY Freiburg
1.65 xG 3.53
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
389 Passes 297
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg edged past Wolfsburg 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Wolfsburg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 56% of the ball to Freiburg's 44%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.65 to 3.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Freiburg's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Freiburg?

Wolfsburg 3-4 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 43%, draw 25%, Freiburg 32%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wolfsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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