Wolfsburg 0-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.87
6+ Goals
12%
8.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.23
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
19%
5.65
X/2
13%
6.59
X/X
16%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.75
2/2
14%
4.11
2/X
4%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.5pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +15%
1.55/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.27
+14% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +47%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.7 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Freiburg
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 1.51
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
388 Passes 329
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.12.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 3-2 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
27.04.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-2 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
09.12.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
22.07.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg HAZ
19.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
21.01.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 6-0 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
0-1
AWAY Freiburg
0.32 xG 1.63
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
257 Passes 393
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg squeezed past Wolfsburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Wolfsburg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 43% of the ball to Freiburg's 57%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.32 to 1.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Freiburg's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.50 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Freiburg?

Wolfsburg 0-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 42%, draw 26%, Freiburg 31%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
26 Apr 2025
16:30 Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05 Analysis →
16:30 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →
16:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs Augsburg Analysis →
16:30 Holstein Kiel vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →
19:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig Analysis →