Bayern Münih 3-0 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.28
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.59
Over 2.5
67%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
8.59
2-3 Goals
35%
2.42
4-5 Goals
32%
2.33
6+ Goals
18%
3.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.42
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
20.4
X/1
14%
4.25
X/2
5%
20.95
X/X
8%
10.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
17.55
2/2
9%
15.45
2/X
6%
23.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.55 — our 10% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
73%
-11.5pp
19%
Draw
16%
+3.4pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.0pp
33%
Under 2.5
24%
+9.1pp
67%
Over 2.5
76%
-9.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
2.81/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/2.33
+41% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +0%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
534 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
41.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
21.1 Crosses 14.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.90 xG 1.01
69% Ball Possession 31%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
610 Passes 226
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
33 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.10.2024 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-4 HT 0-4 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
09.03.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 8-1 HT 3-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
21.10.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
22.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-4 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
3-0
AWAY Mainz 05
1.10 xG 0.67
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
520 Passes 324
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih ran out comfortable winners over Mainz 05 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (67%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 59% of the ball to Mainz 05's 41%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.10 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.17 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05?

Bayern Münih 3-0 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 62%, draw 19%, Mainz 05 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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