Holstein Kiel 4-3 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Apr 2025

📅26/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.29
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
13%
6.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.52
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.75
1/X
9%
12.05
X/1
15%
6.26
X/2
15%
6.28
X/X
8%
5.81
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
17%
3.55
2/X
7%
12.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.75 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+3.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.9pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 40%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +12%
1.52/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.84
-6% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
14.4 Crosses 14.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.57 xG 2.39
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
326 Passes 451
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
14.12.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 4-1 HT 3-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL1
29.07.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-0 HT 0-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
4-3
AWAY Mönchengladbach
3.49 xG 1.69
37% Ball Possession 63%
22 Total Shots 16
11 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 8
194 Passes 374
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel edged past Mönchengladbach 4-3. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Holstein Kiel made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 37% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 63%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 3.49 to 1.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Holstein Kiel's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.50 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs Mönchengladbach?

Holstein Kiel 4-3 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 35%, draw 25%, Mönchengladbach 40%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mönchengladbach) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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