Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 26 Apr 2025

Hoffenheim
2-3 HT 0-1
Borussia Dortmund
📅26/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.81
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.83
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.55
1/X
5%
13.95
X/1
10%
8.59
X/2
16%
4.81
X/X
10%
5.98
2/1
5%
33.5
2/2
23%
2.39
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.55 — our 9% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-2.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 55%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.57/2.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.32
+43% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 81%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
22.2 Crosses 14.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
309 Passes 417
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
25.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 2-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
01.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
29.09.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
25.02.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.09.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
2-3
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.15 xG 2.66
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
288 Passes 541
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 36
15 Crosses 14
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund nicked a narrow win over Hoffenheim 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 38% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 62%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.15 to 2.66 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Borussia Dortmund's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 26/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 28%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 48%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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