El Nacional 0-3 Delfin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Dec 2025

📅20/12/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.72
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
18%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
26%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
54%
+8.2pp
20%
Draw
23%
-3.2pp
18%
Away Win
23%
-5.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Delfin EU Bookmakers 27%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
1.64/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.43
+6% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.6 Crosses 14.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Delfin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 1.89
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
241 Passes 201
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
23 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.08.2025 Delfin Delfin 0-3 HT 0-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.04.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 3-2 HT 2-0 Delfin Delfin EKV1
20.10.2024 Delfin Delfin 1-1 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
30.09.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-2 HT 0-2 Delfin Delfin EKV1
01.05.2023 Delfin Delfin 2-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
04.08.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 Delfin Delfin EKVK
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Delfin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Delfin swept aside El Nacional 3-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had El Nacional at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for El Nacional and 1.33 for Delfin.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Delfin?

El Nacional 0-3 Delfin in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Delfin?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 62%, draw 20%, Delfin 18%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (El Nacional) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →