CD Aguilas 1-0 Estepona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.52
Over 2.5
32%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.6
No
64%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+3.2pp
32%
Draw
31%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.0pp
68%
Under 2.5
62%
+5.9pp
32%
Over 2.5
38%
-5.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
34%
+1.5pp
64%
BTTS No
66%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Aguilas EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Estepona EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
0.95/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.67
-20% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +64%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
276 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Aguilas
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Estepona
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2023 Estepona Estepona 2-1 HT 1-1 CD Aguilas CD Aguilas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Aguilas
1-0
AWAY Estepona
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CD Aguilas vs Estepona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Aguilas edged past Estepona 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had CD Aguilas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CD Aguilas had 38% of the ball to Estepona's 62%, shots finished 10-10.

What was the final score of CD Aguilas vs Estepona?

CD Aguilas 1-0 Estepona in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Aguilas vs Estepona?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Aguilas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split CD Aguilas 42%, draw 32%, Estepona 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Aguilas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CD Aguilas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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