Montijo 1-0 Numancia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
22%
2/1
9%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
+0.5pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.1pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montijo EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Numancia EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
0.88/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.20
-8% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
262 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montijo
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Numancia
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2023 Numancia Numancia 1-2 HT 1-0 Montijo Montijo İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montijo
1-0
AWAY Numancia
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Montijo vs Numancia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montijo edged past Numancia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (26% / 34% / 40%) promised a tight game; Montijo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Montijo had 42% of the ball to Numancia's 58%, shots finished 6-8.

What was the final score of Montijo vs Numancia?

Montijo 1-0 Numancia in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montijo vs Numancia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Numancia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Montijo 26%, draw 34%, Numancia 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Numancia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Numancia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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