Ursaria 2-2 Mensajero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ursaria EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mensajero EU Bookmakers 28%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
0.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.84
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ursaria
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Mensajero
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
10.09.2023 Mensajero Mensajero 1-1 HT 1-0 Ursaria Ursaria İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ursaria
2-2
AWAY Mensajero
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ursaria vs Mensajero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ursaria and Mensajero couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ursaria at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ursaria had 45% of the ball to Mensajero's 55%, shots finished 14-12.

What was the final score of Ursaria vs Mensajero?

Ursaria 2-2 Mensajero in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ursaria vs Mensajero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ursaria win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ursaria 47%, draw 28%, Mensajero 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ursaria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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