Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 21 Jan 2024

Frosinone
3-1 HT 0-1
Cagliari
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Frosinone vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.25
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
16%
5.04
X/2
13%
6.13
X/X
13%
4.53
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
10%
4.27
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.8pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Frosinone v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
0.94/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.37
+35% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
19.7 Crosses 21.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Frosinone vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Cagliari
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.31 xG 1.85
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
296 Passes 370
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 4-3 HT 0-2 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
15.04.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
27.11.2022 Frosinone Frosinone 2-2 HT 1-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
20.04.2019 Cagliari Cagliari 1-0 HT 1-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
02.12.2018 Frosinone Frosinone 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA

Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
3-1
AWAY Cagliari
2.84 xG 0.58
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
382 Passes 213
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone got the better of Cagliari 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Frosinone as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Frosinone had 60% of the ball to Cagliari's 40%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.84 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cagliari led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Frosinone and 1.60 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Cagliari?

Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 41%, draw 29%, Cagliari 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Frosinone) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Frosinone) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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