Maritimo 3-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 21 Jan 2024

Maritimo
3-1 HT 2-0
Nacional
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Maritimo vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-6.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Maritimo v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 32%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +32%
1.19/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.56
-28% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
32.0 Crosses 15.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Maritimo vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nacional
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.34 xG 1.44
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
225 Passes 280
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR2
12.03.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 1-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
31.10.2020 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
31.03.2019 Maritimo Maritimo 3-2 HT 3-1 Nacional Nacional POR
10.11.2018 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
20.02.2017 Maritimo Maritimo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR

Maritimo 3-1 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
3-1
AWAY Nacional
1.05 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
197 Passes 194
71% Pass Accuracy 70%
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo beat Nacional 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Maritimo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Maritimo had 49% of the ball to Nacional's 51%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.05 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Maritimo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Maritimo and 0.83 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Nacional?

Maritimo 3-1 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 38%, draw 28%, Nacional 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maritimo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Maritimo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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