Sporting Covilha 3-2 Academica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
34%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
53%
-13.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
34%
Away Win
22%
+12.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Academica EU Bookmakers 25%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
0.66/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.08
-58% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Academica
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.69 xG 0.68
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
06.10.2023 Academica Academica 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
10.04.2022 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-0 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR2
28.11.2021 Academica Academica 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
02.04.2021 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR2
29.11.2020 Academica Academica 2-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
15.12.2019 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-2 HT 0-0 Academica Academica POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
3-2
AWAY Academica
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Academica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha nicked a narrow win over Academica 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Sporting Covilha made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 46% of the ball to Academica's 54%, shots finished 10-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Academica led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sporting Covilha and 1.33 for Academica.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Academica?

Sporting Covilha 3-2 Academica in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Academica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 40%, draw 26%, Academica 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Covilha), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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