Gençlerbirliği 3-1 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 30% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.72
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
16%
4.5
X/2
12%
7.14
X/X
11%
4.77
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
14%
5.2
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 31%
-14% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.49/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.48
-18% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
22.0 Crosses 14.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gençlerbirliği
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.17 xG 0.53
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
198 Passes 378
67% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
20.08.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
16.05.2023 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 0-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
17.12.2022 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-1 HT 1-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
19.05.2007 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor TSL
03.12.2006 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
29.01.2005 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-2 HT 1-2 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gençlerbirliği
3-1
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.92 xG 0.62
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 345
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gençlerbirliği vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gençlerbirliği got the better of Sakaryaspor 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Gençlerbirliği found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Gençlerbirliği had 49% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 51%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.92 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gençlerbirliği and 1.00 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Gençlerbirliği vs Sakaryaspor?

Gençlerbirliği 3-1 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gençlerbirliği vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gençlerbirliği win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gençlerbirliği 40%, draw 27%, Sakaryaspor 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gençlerbirliği) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gençlerbirliği) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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